Baris Inan (The Beacon)
By Baris Inan, Guest Commentary
The nineteenth century British mathematician and logician Augustus De Morgan (1806-1871) was always interested in odd numerical facts. He once noted, "I was x years old in the year x2," which became one of his famous quotes. Indeed, he turned 43 years old in the square year 1849, which equals the square of 43.
The last square year was 1936 (which is 44 square) and the next one will be 2025 (45 square). Square years occur very seldom and usually happen once in every century.
As I was thinking about the approaching square year 2025 and the upcoming US presidential elections this November, an interesting question popped up in my mind: Could the 45th US President continue to serve in office in the year 2025?
The answer to this question at first appears to be no since President Barack Obama is considered the 44th president of the United States. Between now and the year 2025 there are four more U.S. presidential elections in years 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024. Even if President Obama is reelected this November and the 45th US president is elected and reelected in the 2016 and 2020 elections, the 46th US president will be elected in 2024 and will continue serving in 2025.
However, note that Obama is actually the 43rd individual serving as U.S. president since President Grover Cleveland is often counted twice as the 22nd (1885-1889) and 24th (1893-1897) U.S. presidents since he served in office two nonconsecutive terms. So, if one counts the number of individuals who served as U.S. presidents, President Obama happens to be the 43rd individual to serve as U.S. president. Based on this fact, rephrasing the above question as, "Could the 45th individual continue to serve as US president in the year 2025?" The answer is yes! Indeed, there exists a possibility that the 45th individual could be in office serving as the U.S. president in 2025.
In order to investigate the chance of this possibility, I will make the following three assumptions. First, in each election until 2025, there will be a 50-50 chance that either a Democrat or Republican candidate will win the election. Second, previous U.S. presidents such as Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush and Barack Obama (if he loses the upcoming election) will not be reelected in future elections (like Grover Cleveland). Third, each elected president serves their full four year term.
In the upcoming 2012 elections, either President Obama will be reelected and remain to be the 43rd individual to continue serving as the US president or Governor Mitt Romney will become the 44th individual to serve as US president. In the following, I will consider each case.
Assuming President Obama is reelected in 2012, the following two circumstances will make it possible for the 45th individual to serve as U.S. president in 2025:
The new U.S. president (44th individual) will be elected in 2016 and reelected in 2020. Then the next (45th individual) president will be elected in 2024 and stay in office in 2025.
The new US president (45th individual) will be elected in 2016 but lose in the 2020 election. Then the next (45th individual) president will be elected in 2020, reelected in 2024 and stay in office in 2025.
On the other hand, if Governor Mitt Romney wins the election in 2012, then the only circumstance that will make it possible for the 45th individual to be serving in office as U.S. president in 2025: Governor Mitt Romney (44th individual) will be reelected in 2016. A new president (45th individual) will be elected in 2020, reelected in 2024 and remain in office in 2025.
Based on the above scenarios, I am excited to report that there is a 50 percent chance that the 45th individual will be in office as U.S. president in 2025. Note that if President Obama wins the 2012 elections, this chance will increase to 75 percent. However, if Governor Romney is elected in 2012, this chance will drop to 25 percent.
In summary, if the 45th individual indeed happens to serve as the U.S. president in 2025, this occurrence will mark a unique numerical coincidence. Just like De Morgan's famous age quotation, it could turn into a famous brainteaser puzzle for future generations to challenge.
Baris Inan is a senior electrical engineering major. He can be reached at inan13@up.edu
