By David Thompson
With the West Coast Conference tournament starting tomorrow at the Orleans Casino in Las Vegas, Nev., we look at ten observations that will affect Portland and their chances in the WCC tournament.
Three contenders
The teams in the WCC have sorted themselves into three pretty distinct groupings: The Contenders (Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, and Portland), The Cinderella's (San Francisco and Loyola Marymount), and the "It's Vegas, Anything can Happen" teams (San Diego, Santa Clara and Pepperdine)
Getting above .500
Both San Francisco and Loyola Marymount finished the WCC regular season with seven wins and seven losses.
Loyola Marymount has been getting healthy, and has secured victories over tough competition this year with wins over USC, Notre Dame, Gonzaga and Portland. San Francisco, on the other hand, features the conference's second best scorer in senior Dior Lowhorn (18.4 pts/game) and is the other WCC team to beat Gonzaga. If LMU beats Pepperdine, the Lions and Dons would play for the right to play Gonzaga in the Semi-finals.
3-11= no chance
The three teams that sit at the bottom of the conference standings virtually have no chance at making an impact on the tournament. All three teams have glaring problems and none has shown any resilience this season. On top of that, to win the tournament, they would have to win four games in four nights, most likely playing a combination of Gonzaga, Saint Mary's and Portland on the way. That would be a tough feat for most teams in the country, let alone the bottom feeders of the WCC.
Ravio is gone
Senior forward Nik Ravio will remain out for the tournament. The news is definitely a blow to Portland's chances as Ravio often takes over offensively when the team is stale. On the positive side of things, juniors Nemanja Mitrovic and Jasonn Hannibal have played above expectations since Ravio's injury.
Omar Samhan
The senior for Saint Mary's is in his last conference tournament. His play has been vital to the Gaels success. He is the key to Saint Mary's potent inside-out game. If he gets in foul trouble at any point during the tournament, it may be just enough for Saint Mary's to get upset.
Gonzaga's overconfidence
At times this season, Gonzaga has seemed a bit overconfident in games against lesser opposition. Six of the seven conference opponents that the Zags have played have been within 10 points at the end. During tournament games, any underdog that stays close could spell trouble for the number one seed.
Portland experience
Portland's team has been playing together essentially for two full years now. That experience and consistency is rarely seen in college basketball. All members of the team have been to the WCC tournament except walk-on freshman Kody Mivshek. Last season Portland participated in the CollegeInsiders.com Postseason Tournament (CIT) in preparation for this year. This experience could prove vital if Portland plans to make a run in the tournament.
Stohl and Sikma
Since Ravio has been injured, pretty much the whole team has improved their play. Juniors Jared Stohl and Luke Sikma however, have been crucial to the Pilots' success. Stohl, who currently is the nation's best 3-point shooter at 48.7 percent, has expanded his game from a lights out 3-point specialist to more of an all -around player.
Stohl has kept defenders honest by mixing up his three-point shots with timely head fakes and drives to the bucket. In the 11 games that Ravio has missed, Stohl has almost as many assists (21) as he did in the previous 17 games (25).
Sikma on the other hand has always been a solid player, but he has increased his role on the offensive and defensive end. He has five double-doubles on the season while averaging a career high in points, rebounds and steals. Both Stohl and Ravio were named honorable mentions for All-WCC performers.
Saint Mary's needs a lock
Saint Mary's is currently sitting on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. Many experts are predicting that they'll get in, but only if they make it to the championship game and remain competitive against Gonzaga.
Last year, Saint Mary's found themselves in an eerily similar situation and was left on the outside looking in. If they have learned anything from that experience, it is to leave nothing to chance.
Who wants it most
When it comes down to this time of year, anything can happen. This tournament will come down to who wants it most. Gonzaga virtually has nothing to lose other than seeding. If Gonzaga wins, they will most likely be a top five seed. If Gonzaga loses, depending on the opponent, they could drop down to a seven or eight seed. Saint Mary's on the other hand has both a lot to gain and lose.
The Gaels could either secure their NCAA trip by winning the tournament or if they lose to Portland or anyone else, they could be knocked from the bubble altogether.
This possibility becomes greater still if Portland ends up winning the tournament and stealing one of the spots away from a bubble team. Portland has nothing to lose at this point. Being in such a position is dangerous for every other team in the tournament. The five seniors for the Pilots know this is their last chance to make it to the big dance. All these variables could equal a recipe for an upset.
David Thompson is a
reporter for The Beacon.
He can be contacted at
thompson10@up.edu
